IEA sees new European lockdowns denting oil demand outlook ...

2020 on Forex: the new forecasts

The coronavirus has changed everything. When analysts gave forecasts for 2020 at the end of last year, no one could foresee that the whole world would be seized by the pandemic. Call it a “black swan” or not, it’s necessary to re-evaluate the situation and adjust the medium- and the long-term outlook. Below you will find the analysis of the main Forex drivers and the overview of the prospects for the key commodities.

US recession

In 2019, economists had some fears of a potential US recession. Well, they were right not only about the USA, but also about the whole world as lockdowns pushed every country to the deep downturn. Now it’s clear that earlier the view was naturally more optimistic. How encouraging the US unemployment rate and NFP were at the end of 2019! We couldn’t imagine at that time that more than 33 million Americans would lose jobs and economic activity would fall to unprecedented lows. The Fed made a dire scenario for the prolonged US recession. All the needed measures have been taken, almost 3 trillion dollars were provided to support the market and additional aids are expected. Anyway, the US dollar gains as a safe-haven currency. The collapse of USD this year remains highly unlikely.

Central banks’ monetary policy

In December, we expected the Federal Reserve to be patient in its monetary policy decisions. At the same time, we didn’t underestimate the power of rate cuts due to recession fears. Coronavirus outbreak flipped the script with the Federal Reserve unveiling outstanding measures to support the suffering economy. The first rate cut from 1.5-1.75% to 1-1.25% happened at the beginning of March and was followed by an even bigger rate cut to the range of 0-0.25% just after a week. At the same time, the regulator announced an unlimited buying of mortgage-backed securities and plans to buy corporate bonds and bonds backed by consumer debt. Moreover, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t exclude the possibility of negative interest rates. Even though our forecasts were not 100% accurate, the upside for the USD has been indeed limited. As for the stock market, after a shock wave caused by Covid-19, the ultra-loose monetary policy pushed the indices up.
Other major central banks also joined the easing game. The Reserve banks of Australia and New Zealand cut their interest rate to unprecedented lows of 0.25%. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada lowered their interest rate as well to 0.1% and 0.25% respectively. As for the European Central bank, it keeps the zero interest rate on hold. The supportive tool the ECB presented is the 750 billion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) aimed to counter the serious risks to the outlook of the Eurozone.
As all major central banks conduct almost similar easing policy, the Forex pairs can fluctuate within certain levels for a long period. That is actually a good news for range-bound traders, as channels are expected to remain quite strong.
ECB
The European Central Bank let the market know that it was aiming to do whatever it takes to save the euro area from the coronavirus damage. However, trouble always brings his brother: Germany was so tired to be the sponsor of the unlimited bond-purchasing ECB program that the German court claimed that it actually violated constitution. Now, the ECB has three months to explain that purchases were "proportionate". The ECB credibility is under threat as Germany may pull out of the next ECB's bond purchases. This situation has made euro quite volatile.

Brexit

Boris Johnson hasn’t kept his promise “to get Brexit done” yet. However, we can forgive him for that as this year brings much worse problems to deal with. Now, when countries are getting over the coronavirus shock, the UK and EU should hold the last round of trade talks and finalize an agreement by the end of December. Some analysts are skeptical about that. They think the deadline could be extended beyond the end of December, leaving the UK subject to tariffs on most goods. This would be devastating for the British pound. The sooner the UK and EU make a deal, the better for GBP.

Oil

Oil prices spent last year between $50 and $70. December was positive with the US and China ceasing fire in the trade war and OPEC extending production cuts. Possibility of a scenario where prices drop to 0 and below was absolutely inconceivable even for the most pessimistic observers, and yet it came true. It marked the beginning of 2020 with historically unseen turbulence, even apart from the coronavirus hit.
In the long term, however, there are all fundamentals for oil prices to get back to where they were. However, that may not happen this year. Observers predict that oil prices will recover to the levels of $55-60 if there is nothing in the way during the year. Otherwise, $30 is seen as the safest baseline level for the commodity during 2020.

Stocks

Just like in 2019, the stock market had a nightmarish beginning of 2020. S&P lost 35%, with some stocks losing more than 50% of value. As the summer season is coming, the market sees 50% of the losses recovered in most sectors. While the shape of recovery is being discussed, most analysts agree that after the worst-performing Q2, the S&P will continue restoring its value.
Notice that the situation is different for different stocks. Locked by the anti-virus restrictions, most of the world population was forced to spend weeks and months at home facing their TVs, laptops, and desktops. That made strong Internet-related companies blossom, so we saw Amazon and Netflix rise to even higher value than before the virus. On the contrary, the healthcare sector struggling to invent the vaccine saw Moderna, BionTech, Inovio, and other new and old pharma companies surge to unexpected heights.
IT and Internet communications companies will likely gain much more attention during the year.
Google, Nvidia, Disney, Apple, and many more around the IT and Internet sectors have the full potential to spearhead the S&P in 2020 and further on.
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6 Major Currency Pairs

There are many popular currency pairs and there is a difference in outlook in all the major currency pairs and the list is always not definite. The list of 6 major currency pairs which will be presented is not best to worst but randomly selecting 6 major currency pairs

1) EUUSD:

Our first pick is EUUSD as it is one of the highest traded forex pairs around the globe. The euro, in this case, is base currency while the us dollar is the quote currency meaning that how many dollars you will need in order to purchase one euro. This currency pair is less volatile than other pairs as both of these currencies are backed by world’s two greatest economies.

2) GBP/USD:

In this currency pair, the GBP is used as base currency and USD as a quote currency showing how many US dollars you will be needing to purchase one pound. This currency pair is also known as ‘cable’ as they used deep-sea cables in order to transfer price info between New York and London.

3) USD/JPY:

In this case, the difference between the two currencies is very large but still this is a very major currency pair because of the low-interest rate policies of the bank of japan. In this currency pair the USD is used as base currency and JPY as a quote currency showing how many Japanese Yen you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar.

4) USD/CHF:

Just like yen, the Swiss franc is popular for its safe-haven investment that’s is why the Swiss Franc currency is popular among traders as it has lower amount of risk. In this currency pair the USD is used as base currency and CHF as a quote currency showing how many Swiss franc currency you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar.

5) AUD/USD:

In this currency pair, the USD is used as base currency and AUD as a quote currency showing how many Australian Dollars you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar. If you want to start trading between this pair you have to keep updated on the commodities as it tends to affect the overall currency fluctuation in Australian dollars.

6) USD/CAD:

In this currency pair, the USD is used as base currency and CAD as a quote currency showing how many Canadian Dollars you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar. The value of Canadian dollars depends on the price of oil as Canada’s main export is Oil. So when trading keeping price of oil in mind can drastically change the overall result.
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Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: Global stocks are dropping following economic contraction in two of the world’s largest economies

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Your PM US Stocks and a whole lot more news that you need to read: US stocks close lower, pare earlier losses on Brexit progress

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Crude Oil Plummets on OPEC Plus Collapse, USD/JPY Sinks as EUR/USD Soars Technical Outlook – S&P 500, Dow, DAX, US & UK Oil, Gold & More Trading Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, Dow Jones, DAX & More Weekly FOREX Forecast  7th - 11th Jan  Don't Waste 2019! EUR/USD Price Outlook Using IG Client Sentiment How To Trade Forex - XAUUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, US30 ... Dow Jones, Crude Oil, Silver Price Outlook & More Weekly FOREX Forecast: 17th – 21st Feb 2020  (FREE SESSION) Crude Oil Forecast for June 1st, 2020

The bearish demand outlook and rising supply from Libya may mean OPEC+ could roll over the existing cuts into next year, OPEC+ sources said on Thursday. There is an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Nov. 30 to Dec. 1 to set policy. Oil slides on COVID-19 resurgence, strong dollar, Reuters, Oct 16 Oil outlook weakens. A deteriorating outlook for crude demand is preventing oil prices from following the post-election stock market rally. The demand outlook might take a big hit if health ... USD/CAD price action plummeted to fresh yearly lows this morning as the Canadian Dollar surges with crude oil in response to encouraging coronavirus vaccine headlines. Analysts at Goldman Sachs maintain their Brent price-forecast for the year-end while projecting a constructive outlook for the next year, in their latest client note. Key quotes “Oil inventories ... During Friday's early Asian trading session, the [[WTI]] crude oil prices snapped its three-day bullish run-up. They came under some selling pressure around below 41.00 level after the EIA's downbeat inventory numbers, which showed a sharp build-up in U.S. crude oil stocks. Apart from this, the new explosion of coronavirus cases in the United States keeps threatening the outlook for oil, which ... By Noah Browning. LONDON (Reuters) - Renewed lockdown measures in Europe aimed at containing a rise in COVID-19 cases appear set to push the outlook for global oil demand toward the downside, an ... Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1713; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1853; More….. EUR/USD breached 1.1737 support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1 ...

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" " Forex Trading & Wave Analysis Weekly FOREX Forecast: 1st - 5th July

In this video, I show you how to trade forex on XAUUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, US30, NAS100, SP500, OIL the upcoming week, and teach you how to analyze the ... Stocks continue hang out near record highs, no reason to be bearish with prices pointed upward, crude oil recovery may continue, silver starting to break out and try and catch up to gold ... Weekly forex forecast "weekly outlook" is designed to cover Forex pairs (fx trading: eur usd…), indices, commodities (gold price, oil price…) and cryptocurrencies includes the following: FOREX ... In today’s webinar, we looked at several major markets and how the recent directionless volatility may resolve itself along with tactical considerations. -Subscribe to DailyFX: https://www ... CRUDE OIL FUTURES Chart Review ... Weekly Forex Forecast 8th - 12th June 2020 - Duration: 10:02. Top Forex Targets 5,663 views. 10:02. The Perfect Day Trade After Crude Oil Report Investing ... In this webinar series, DailyFX Sr Strategist Ilya Spivak discusses the outlook for financial markets in the coming week. Topics discussed in this episode included: - Crude #oil plunge on #OPEC ... Weekly forex forecast "weekly outlook" is designed to cover Forex pairs (fx trading: eur usd…), indices, commodities (gold price, oil price…) and cryptocurrencies includes the following: FOREX ... Weekly forex forecast "weekly outlook" is designed to cover Forex pairs (fx trading: eur usd…), indices, commodities (gold price, oil price…) and cryptocurrencies includes the following: FOREX ... EUR/USD Price Outlook Using IG Client Sentiment ... Millions of traders from around the world seek out DailyFX for up-to-date forex alerts, news and analysis. Think of us as your trading friends ... Trading Outlook for Crude Oil, Gold Price, Dow Jones, DAX & More ... Millions of traders from around the world seek out DailyFX for up-to-date forex alerts, news and analysis. Think of us as your ...

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